Assessing Low Carbon Fuel Standards:
Implications of New Congressional and State Efforts to Cap Carbon in Gasoline
Thursday, April 16, 2009
Low carbon fuel standards have been proposed by state governments and now are a part of the climate and energy legislation introduced in the U.S. House of Representative's Energy & Commerce Committee earlier this month. A low carbon fuel standard sets limits on the greenhouse gas emissions allowed from the production and consumption of a transportation fuel and then reduces those limits over time.
For example, the recently released Waxman-Markey legislation requires the carbon content of gasoline to drop 5% below 2014 levels by 2023 and reach a 10% reduction by 2030. California is considering a proposal requiring a 10% reduction (relative to 2010) in the carbon content of the state's gasoline supply by 2020.
Meeting these standards necessitates the rapid and extensive introduction and use of alternatives to petroleum-based gasoline, but very few are close to commercial viability and most face significant technical and economic hurdles before becoming viable.
Economists Michael Canes and Edward Murphy recently analyzed similar proposed regulations, concluding that low carbon fuel standards were a "prohibitively costly" approach which would have limited effectiveness in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. They discussed the findings of their recently released study of low carbon fuel standards on April 16.
On April 2, the Marshall Institute released two studies examining the economic, environmental, and security implications of proposed low carbon fuel standards. They are available at:
Economic, Environmental, and Energy Security Consequences of a National Low Carbon Fuel Standard - a summary of both studies.
Economics of a National Low Carbon Fuel Standard by Michael Canes and Edward Murphy
National Security, Energy Security, and a Low Carbon Fuel Standard by Jeff Kueter, President George C. Marshall Institute
The Marshall Institute's Climate Change and Energy Policy programs provide the public, the media, and policy makers with information and assessments to aid their consideration of those controversial issues.
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Boost Phase Missile Defense: Present Challenges, Future Prospects
Friday, April 3, 2009
Washington DC 20003The pursuit of ballistic missile defense ranks among the most contentious national security concerns of the last 30 years. Nevertheless, significant steps have been taken in recent years to deploy systems capable of defending the American public from ballistic missile threats. Debate today rages over the appropriate scale and direction of the missile defense effort.
One of those debates concerns the role of boost phase defense. Destroying attacking missiles early in their flight offers enormous benefits, but the mission remains politically controversial and technically demanding. The Reagan and George H.W. Bush Administrations pursued boost defenses from space, but those efforts were cancelled in the 1990s. Terrestrial and airborne approaches have been explored in recent years, notably the Airborne Laser (ABL), Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI) and the Network Centric Airborne Defense Element (NCADE).
A tight budgetary environment and an emphasis on terminal and midcourse defenses have created precarious conditions for the nascent boost phase programs. Two panels discussed the political and technical issues associated with contemporary debates over boost phase missile defense.
8:30am Welcome and Opening Remarks:
Jeff Kueter ? President, George C. Marshall Institute
8:45-10am Panel I: Does It Matter Whether We Have a Boost-Phase Defense and Why Don?t We Have One?
- Robert Pfaltzgraff, President, Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis
- Daniel Goure, Vice President, Lexington Institute
- Peter Huessy, President, GeoStrategic Analysis
10:15am-Noon Panel II: The Technical Feasibility of Current Approaches to Boost Phase Missile Defense
- Dr. Greg Hyslop, Vice President and General Manager of Missile Defense Systems, Boeing
- Lt. Gen. Larry Dodgen (Ret.), Vice President and Deputy General Manager of Missions? Systems Missile Defense, Northrop Grumman
- Michael Booen, Vice President of Advanced Missile Defense Systems, Raytheon
- Glenn Haskins, ALHTK Program Manager, Lockheed Martin
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"A Day Without Space" National Security Ramifications
Sponsored by the Marshall Institute and the Space Enterprise Council of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Thursday, February 12, 2009
The exploitation of space systems offers significant advantages to the United States military. The integration of space assets with terrestrial power projection capabilities remains a uniquely American strength and provides a clear incentive for others to seek to disrupt access to those advantages by jamming information transmissions, denying use of on-orbit capabilities, or physically attacking American spacecraft or ground stations.
On February 12, the George Marshall Institute and the Space Enterprise Council of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce co-hosted the second installment of their "A Day Without Space" series to discuss the national security implications of losing access to space-borne assets and information and what steps might be taken to safeguard them.
Keynote: Contributions of Space to U.S. Security delivered by Gen. James E. Cartwright, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Panel: Responding to Space Challenges
Dana Johnson, NorthropGrumman Analysis Center
James Lewis, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Baker Spring, The Heritage Foundation
Panel: Organizing, Managing, and Acquiring Space Assets
Tommy Brazie, ITT Space Systems Division
David Graham, Institute for Defense Analyses
Hal Hagemeier, National Security Space Office, Dept. of Defense
Additional information about the first installment of the series, held on October 16th, is available at http://www.uschamber.com/space/events/2008_past_events.htm.
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WASHINGTON ROUNDTABLE ON SCIENCE AND PUBLIC POLICY
Global Warming as a Response to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Dr. Roy Spencer, Principal Research Scientist, University of Alabama, Huntsville
Monday, December 15, 2008
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assumes that there are no long-term natural sources of energy imbalances in the Earth's radiative budget that would cause natural periods of global warming or global cooling. But recent satellite evidence suggests that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) does indeed change the Earth's energy balance. When that PDO-related forcing is put into a simple climate model, along with the 100-year history of the PDO, a global temperature history results which is very similar to that observed, including 75% of the centennial temperature trend. This suggests that the IPCC's claim of high confidence in global warming being manmade is misplaced.
Dr. Roy Spencer is a principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville. In the past, he has served as Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, where here he directed research into the development and application of satellite passive microwave remote sensing techniques for measuring global temperature, water vapor, and precipitation. He currently is the U.S. Science Team Leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) on NASA's Aqua satellite. Dr. Spencer is the recipient of NASA's Medal for Exceptional Scientific Achievement and the American Meteorological Society's Special Award for his satellite-based temperature monitoring work. He is the author of numerous scientific articles that have appeared in Science, Nature, Journal of Climate, Monthly Weather Review, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, Remote Sensing Reviews, Advances in Space Research, and Climatic Change. Dr. Spencer received his Ph.D. in Meteorology from the University of Wisconsin in 1981.
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Deterrence in Space: Responding to Challenges to the U.S. in Outer Space
November 13, 2008
Space systems provide significant benefits to American commerce and national security, but those systems do not operate in an environment free from threats or hostile actions. As more nations gain access to space and the tecnologies needed to impede American use of space, U.S. policy makers and military leaders are grappling with how best to respond.
Facing persistent acquisition problems, declining budgets, and multiplying threats, some Pentagon planners are looking to keep vital US space systems from harm through a policy of deterrence. But what would it take to make that approach effective? Could it really prove less expensive than militarily protective options? And what would happen if it failed?
On November 13, the George C. Marshall Institute hosted a discussion on the questions surrounding the idea of finding space security through deterrence. Speakers included:
- Dr. Robert Butterworth, President of Aries Analytics
- Dr. John Sheldon, visiting professor at the School of Advanced Air and Space Studies, Air University, Maxwell AFB, Alabama
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"A Day Without Space" Economic and National Security Ramifications
Sponsored by the Marshall Institute and the Space Enterprise Council of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Space systems provide significant benefits to American commerce and national security. On October 16, the George Marshall Institute and the Space Enterprise Council of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce co-hosted a "A Day Without Space" to discuss the implications of losing access to space-borne assets and information for the U.S. economy and national security.
Speakers at the October 16th event included:
, Executive Director, Department of
Commerce, Office of Space Commerce
Steven Anderson, Chief Scientist, Horizon
Ronald Hatch, director of Navigation Systems, NavCom Technology, a John Deere Company.
Major General James Armor (Ret. USAF)
Dr. John Sheldon, School of Advanced Air and
Space Studies, Maxwell AFB
Dr. Pete Hays, Associate Director, Eisenhower Center for Space and Defense Studies, USAF Academy
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WASHINGTON ROUNDTABLE ON SCIENCE AND PUBLIC POLICY
Airborne Laser (ABL): Assessing Recent Developments and Plans for the Future
Col. Robert McMurry & Lt. Gen. (ret) Michael Dunn
June 27, 2008
Using a megawatt-class Chemical Oxygen Iodine Laser housed aboard a modified Boeing 747-400 airplane, the Airborne Laser's (ABL) mission is to detect, track, target and destroy ballistic missiles during their boost-phase, or shortly after launch. Having successfully demonstrated the component technologies and capabilities over the past several years, those elements are now being integrated on-board the aircraft in preparation for a series of ground and flights tests as well as missile intercept test. Col. Robert McMurry discussed recent accomplishments and plans for the future and Lt. Gen. Michael Dunn elaborated on the missions this revolutionary system might fill.
Col. McMurry is Commander of the Airborne Laser Program Office at Kirtland Air Force Base, New Mexico. This mission of this wing level organization is to demonstrate the capability of the ABL to shoot down a ballistic missile in its boost phase. This is his second tour with the missile defense agency; in previous assignments he was the F-16 System Program Manager and the Vice Wing Commander for Space Based Infrared Systems.
Lt General (Retired) Michael M. Dunn is the President and CEO of the Air Force Association (AFA). AFA is a non-profit grass roots organization with 125,000 members all over the United States, the Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East. AFA's mission is to educate the public about the importance of airpower, advocate for a strong national defense and strong Air Force, and support the Air Force and the Air Force family. Gen Dunn's last assignment on active duty was President, National Defense University, Washington, D.C.
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Examining Risks of Nuclear Waste Disposal
Dr. Bernard Cohen
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Dr. Bernard Cohen discussed his Marshall Institute Policy Outlook, Radioactive Waste Disposal: Nature's Way vs Government's Way. The current government solution to radioactive waste (radwaste) disposal is to place it in high-tech underground storage chambers designed to prevent or greatly delay contact with groundwater, which is the main potential conveyor of radioactivity into the human environment. Evaluating the risks from this untried procedure involves large scientific uncertainties and estimating probabilities for various unpredictable geologic futures. The risk estimates have thus been easily vulnerable to attacks by political opponents, resulting in long time delays and massive expenditures, leaving the entire program in danger of collapse.
Dr. Cohen pointed out that Nature has its own way, proven by millions of years of experience, for managing radioactive materials in the ground. Adopting Nature?s way for managing our radwaste thus leaves very little uncertainty in the risk analyses, and these lead to the conclusion that all of our forever accumulating radwaste will never cause as much as one death per year in the U.S., less than 0.01% of the of the number now caused by wastes from coal-burning electricity generation.
Bernard L. Cohen is Professor-Emeritus of Physics and Astronomy and of Environmental and Occupational Health at University of Pittsburgh. He has authored six books, over 300 papers in scientific journals, and more than seventy articles in non-technical journals. He has presented invited lectures in the United States, Canada, Asia, Europe and South America. His awards include the American Physical Society Bonner Prize and the Health Physics Society Distinguished Scientific Achievement Award. He has been elected Chairman of the Division of Nuclear Physics of the American Physical Society, and Chairman of the Division of Environmental Sciences of the American Nuclear Society.
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The George C. Marshall Institute and the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC) present
Developing Clean, Innovative Commercial Energy: Will Proposed Federal Subsidies Hurt or Help?
Lee Lane, Peter Bradford, and David Montgomery
Friday, June 13, 2008
The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) most recent projections show that the United States will require nearly 20% more energy in 2030 than it consumes today to accommodate a growing population and increasing standards of living. In meeting that expected energy demand, the EIA projects U.S. carbon dioxide emissions to rise by about a gigaton between today and 2030.
Current energy policy and climate debates presume that the introduction of new technologies and expansion of carbon-neutral energy sources will successfully meet the twin objectives of meeting growing demand for energy while reducing carbon emissions. These debates further assume that the development and use of these technologies and energy sources can be accelerated by increasing federal spending in the form of loan guarantees, tax credits, commercialization projects, the creation of "clean-energy" slush funds, and other forms of government subsidies.
How effective is the federal government at promoting technological innovation in the energy and environmental area? What lessons can be learned from nearly 30 years of federal investment in energy technologies? Should we expand subsidies for commercial technology deployment? The Marshall Institute and the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center co-hosted this forum to help address these and related questions.
Jeff Kueter's slide presentations can be found here, those of Peter Bradford can be found here and those of W. David Montgomery can be found here.
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Regulating Under Uncertainty: Risk, Regulation and the Use of Scientific Information
Dr. Elmer Rauckman
May 12, 2008
With concerns about the effects of chemicals on human health and the environment once again capturing headlines, questions about how the regulatory process weighs scientific information and uses it in creating regulatory approaches are raised.
The Marshall Institute hosted a discussion the use of scientific information in framing perceptions of risk in devising new regulations. The event provided an opportunity to discuss the manner in which regulators use scientific and technical information to judge risk, how those judgments about risk are translated into regulatory decisions, and the consequences, intended or unintended, of those outcomes.
Having worked in both government and industry, Dr. Elmer Rauckman, a private consultant specializing in toxicology and regulatory affairs, offered insights and perspectives on the review and decision-making processes used by federal regulators.
Dr. Rauckman holds a PhD in organic chemistry from Duke University. He was a chemical manager and project officer for the National Toxicology Program and then spent ten years as the Manager for Corporate Toxicology for the Hoechst Corporation. Since 1999, he has operated a private consultancy providing advice on toxicology and regulatory issues. He is a member of the Society of Toxicology, the Society of Environmental Toxicologists and Chemists, the American Chemical Society, and the Regulatory Affairs Professional Society.
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Is an Outer Space Arms Control Treaty Verifiable?
Paula A. DeSutter, Assistant Secretary of State
for Verification, Compliance, and Implementation
March 4, 2008
Assistant Secretary of State for Verification, Compliance, and Implementation Paula A. DeSutter delivered remarks on Arms Control in Outer Space and Verification. She discussed the analysis that governments must make in reaching a judgment about whether or not an arms control agreement is effectively verifiable, and then apply that analysis to outer space arms control. During this presentation, Assistant Secretary DeSutter placed the Bush Administration?s policy of opposing new space arms control negotiations in the context of the many difficulties in verifying any such new arrangements for outer space.
Paula A. DeSutter has an extensive background in verification and a career focus on national security and intelligence. She served for over four years as a Professional Staff Member of the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. Ms. DeSutter was professional staff liaison to Senator Jon Kyl and was responsible for legislation and oversight of intelligence collection, analysis and activities related to proliferation, terrorism, arms control, the Persian Gulf States, India, Pakistan, China, and Afghanistan. She has held numerous positions in the Verification and Intelligence Bureau in the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (ACDA). Ms. DeSutter's publications include Denial and Jeopardy: Deterring Iranian Use of NBC Weapons (NDU Press, 1998).
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The Emerging Role of Non-Lethal Weapons: Issues and Implications for the United States
December 7, 2007
Why is the U.S. developing non-lethal weapons capabilities? How will access to these systems improve the safety and security of the U.S. and its deployed forces? What role should these systems play in the context of homeland security? What are the limitations and drawbacks of using these capabilities and can they be overcome so that non-lethal weapons can be fully integrated into the military?s toolkit?
This event discussed these and other issues associated with the emergence of non-lethal weapons systems based on advanced technologies. Panelists also provided an overview and update on the current state of systems development.
Speakers at the December 7th event were:
, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, Homeland Defense and Americas? Security Affairs
Col. Kirk Hymes, Director, Joint Non-Lethal Weapons Directorate
Dr. William R. Graham, former Science Advisor to the President and Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy
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Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System Status and Upgrades
Rear Admiral Alan B. Hicks
Program Director, Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense
November 28th, 2007
The Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense is the sea-based element of the Missile Defense Agency?s Ballistic Missile Defense System. Aegis BMD is operational, prepared to perform its strategic role in Homeland Defense. Its regional defense capabilities have resulted in significant international interest in the program from friends and allies. The Aegis BMD program achieved its tenth and eleventh successful interceptions out of thirteen attempts this past November, in its first ever simultaneous engagement of two targets outside the atmosphere. The program?s successful track record has established it as a mature program, and one of the highlights of the national missile defense system. Slides from Adm. Hicks' presentation can be viewed by following this link.
Rear Admiral Alan B. Hicks was appointed Program Director in November 2005, relieving RADM Kathleen Paige. Previously, RADM Hicks served as commander of the Aegis cruiser USS CAPE ST GEORGE (CG-71); Deputy Director for Combat Systems and Weapons in the Surface Warfare Directorate of the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations; requirements and programmatic action officer in support of the Joint Requirements Oversight Council (JROC); and Deputy Commander, Warfare Systems Engineering, in the Naval Sea Systems Command and Commander, Naval Surface Warfare Center. A native of Louisville, Kentucky, RADM Hicks graduated from the University of Louisville with a degree in International Studies and Economics. He earned his commission through the university?s NROTC program and was designated a Surface Warfare Officer shortly thereafter. RADM Hicks was selected to flag rank by the Fiscal Year 2002 Flag Selection Board.
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Energy from Space: Examining the Potential of Space to Provide Energy for Earth
August 8, 2007
As the nation considers calls for energy independence, might answer lie in the heavens? Capturing solar energy in space and transmitting it to Earth presents intriguing possibilities for those concerned about energy supplies, environmental policy, national security and the continued development of space commerce. But, is it possible to cost-effectively harness power from space?
Dr. Martin Hoffert of New York University and John C. Mankins of Managed Energy Technologies LLC reviewed the current state of the technologies and outline steps needed to determine the feasibility of utilizing space to provide energy on Earth. Dr. Hoffert's slides can be found by following this link, and Mr. Mankins' slides can be found by following this link.
About the Speakers
Dr. Martin Hoffert ? Professor Emeritus of Physics and former Chair of the Department of Applied Science at New York University, Dr. Hoffert is a leading authority on advanced energy technologies. Prof. Hoffert has published broadly in fluid mechanics, plasma physics, atmospheric science, oceanography, planetary atmospheres, environmental science, solar and winds energy conversion and space solar power.
John C. Mankins ? During a 25-year career at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and NASA Headquarters, John Mankins was the lead for NASA?s 1995-2001 Space Solar Power research, as well as serving as the manager of the Exploration Systems Research and Technology Program. Since leaving the space agency, he has become a successful technology management consultant, and continues to pursue advanced renewable energy technology as co-founder and Chief Operating Officer of Managed Energy Technologies LLC, and President of the Space Power Association.
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Potential and Prospects for Cellulosic Ethanol
Dr. Aristides A. N. Patrinos Wednesday, July 25, 2007
President, Synthetic Genomics, Inc.
Mr. Larry Kumins
Vice President, Research and Analysis, Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. (EPRINC)
The potential benefits of cellulosic-based fuels are widely acknowledged, but such fuels may be years away from widespread use. This panel discussion considered the scientific, technical and economic hurdles that must be crossed before use of cellulosic fuels will become commonplace.
Aristides Patrinos, President of Synthetic Genomics, Inc., directs research activities in microbial genome research, structural biology, nuclear medicine, and global environmental change. Dr. Patrinos played a historic role in the successful Human Genome Project, the founding of the U.S. Department of Energy?s Joint Genome Institute and the design and launch of DOE?s visionary genomics. He is a leading authority on structural biology, nuclear medicine and health effects.
Larry Kumins, Vice President for Research and Analysis at EPRINC, previously served as a research specialist in energy policy at the Congressional Research Service (CRS) in the U.S. Library of Congress. He has over 30 years experience in undertaking assessments and research on a wide range of oil and natural gas policy and economic issues. Mr. Kumins is a recognized expert on fuel supply, trends in supply and demand in petroleum product markets, natural gas regulatory policy, oil imports and exports, OPEC and world oil market developments.
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Is Cap & Trade the Wrong Policy to Curb Greenhouse Gases for the United States?
Dr. Michael Canes
Senior Research Fellow, Logistics Management Institute
Friday, July 20, 2007
The Marshall Institute released its new study, Cap & Trade is the Wrong Policy to Curb Greenhouse Gases for the United States, authored by Dr. Michael Canes. Dr. Canes analyzes the burdens of implementing a Cap and Trade (C&T) system and concludes that strengthening a goals-based approach presents a more attractive policy option.
U.S. policy for controlling greenhouse gases (GHG) has relied largely on voluntary actions to achieve its objectives. Through 2006, the U.S. is ahead of schedule, having reduced the GHG intensity of its output over the past four years by almost 11%. But a number of C&T proposals have emerged to compel more rapid reductions in GHGs.
Dr. Canes argues that implementation of a GHG Cap and Trade system in the U.S. would be a serious policy mistake: it would impose high costs on the economy; result in volatile prices for allowances and fossil fuels; involve government creation of wealth, creating vast opportunities for "rent-seeking," influence peddling and corruption; and require extensive and expensive worldwide monitoring.
Dr. Michael E. Canes is a Senior Research Fellow at the Logistics Management Institute in McLean, Virginia. He previously was Vice President and Chief Economist of the American Petroleum Institute, where he sponsored early development of the Charles River Associates Multi-Sector Multi-Region Trade (MS-MRT) model for climate change policy analysis. Dr. Canes has a PhD in Economics from UCLA and an MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics.
Marshall Institute Report on Cap and Trade Profiled on E&E TV
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On July 7, 2007, The American Foreign Policy Council presented a Missile Defense Roundtable on The Cruise Missile Challenge. The speakers were Mr. Jeff Kueter, President of the George C. Marshall Institute, and Mr. David Kier, Vice President of the Lockheed Martin Corporation. Mr. Kueter's slide presentation can be found by following this link, and Mr. Kier's slide presentation can be found by following this link.
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Forum on National Security Space: Examining Codes and Rules for Space
June 27, 2007
Dr. T.S. Kelso, Senior Research Astrodynamicist, Center for Space Standards and Innovation (CSSI), Analytical Graphics, Inc.
Gerry Jansson, Intelsat
Speakers discussed ongoing efforts, established rules, and options for the future with respect to collision avoidance, debris mitigation, and harmful interference resolution. This event provided substance and context to calls for "codes of conduct" and "rules of the road." The discussion was organized into three panels:
Panel II ? Debris Mitigation
Kenneth Hodgkins, Deputy Director, Office of Science and Advanced Technology, Bureau of Oceans, Environment and Science, U.S. Department of State
Lt. Gen. John Campbell USAF (ret), Executive VP for Government Affairs, Iridium Satellite LLC
Panel III ? Harmful Interference Resolution
Kurt Hackmeier, Corporate Director, Air Force Space Programs, Northrop Grum-man
Col. Pat Frakes, Director of Space Policy, Office of the Secretary of Defense
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The Science Isn?t Settled - The Limitations of Global Climate Models
Dr. Tim Ball
Environmental Consultant and former Professor of Climatology
at the University of Winnipeg
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
Computerized models of the earth?s climate are at the heart of the debate over how public policy should respond to climate change. Global climate models ? also called general circulation models ? attempt to predict future climatic conditions starting with a set of assumptions about how the climate works and guesses about what a future world might look like in terms of population, energy use, technological development, and so on.
Analysts have pointed out, however, that many of the assumptions used in modeling the climate are of dubious merit, with biases that tend to project catastrophic warming, and have argued that climate models have many limitations that make them unsuitable as the basis for developing public policy.
This paper, published by the Fraser Institute, examines two major limitations that hinder the usefulness of climate models to those forming public policy, and the seminardiscussing this paperwas led by one of the paper?s authors, Dr. Tim Ball.
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Forum on National Security Space -Near Term Responses to New Strategic Challenges in Space
Friday, March 2, 2007
The increasing dependence on space by the United States, its allies, and potential adversaries has stimulated much debate about the security threats and defense of our space assets. In particular, new revelations about emerging challenges to U.S. national security space assets are focusing policy makers on actions and programs.
This forum, part of the Marshall Institute?s ongoing National Security Space project (http://www.marshall.org/category.php?id=8),considered actions the U.S. government could begin taking to protect U.S. interests as well as preserve international stability.
Context for Policy Making
- Mr. Richard Buenneke, The Aerospace Corporation
- Dr. Robert Butterworth, Aries Analytics
Neighborhood Watch and Partnerships
- Mr. David Cavossa, Satellite Industry Association
- Dr. Jürgen Drescher, DLR - German Aerospace Center
- Mr. Andrew R. D'Uva, Providence Access Company
- Brig. Gen. Donald Pettit USAF (Ret), Aero Thermal Technology Inc.
- Dr. Robert Butterworth, Aries Analytics Inc.
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A Comparison of a Cap and Trade System v. Alternative Policies to Curb U.S. Greenhouse Gases
Dr. Michael Canes
Senior Research Fellow, Logistics Management Institute
Thursday, February 22, 2007
Since the inception of international discussions regarding climate change, there has been debate within the United States concerning what course of action to take. Dr. Canes discussed his recent study A Cap and Trade System v. Alternative Policies to Curb U.S. Greenhouse Gases.He finds that the U.S. record in reducing its greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity through investment in R&D and voluntary partnership programs and the prospective costs of a cap and trade system suggest that the policy of continuing to develop and promote adoption of less GHG intensive technologies without adversely affecting GDP is the best choice.
Dr. Michael E. Canes is a Senior Research Fellow at the Logistics Management Institute in McLean, Virginia. He previously was Vice President and Chief Economist of the American Petroleum Institute, where he sponsored early development of the Charles River Associates Multi-Sector Multi-Region Trade (MS-MRT) model for climate change policy analysis. He also has been a member of the faculty of the Graduate School of Management of the University of Rochester, NY. Dr. Canes has a PhD in Economics from UCLA and an MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics.
Current Status and Future Developments for U.S. Missile Defense
Brigadier General Patrick J. O?Reilly
Deputy Director of the Missile Defense Agency
Monday, January 29, 2007
BG Patrick J. O?Reilly reviewed the accomplishments of the missile defense program to date, and discussed the challenges and opportunities facing the program as it moves forward.
BG Patrick J. O?Reilly is the Deputy Director of the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) Office of the Secretary of Defense, Pentagon, Washington, DC. The MDA is Presidentially-chartered and mandated by Congress to acquire highly effective ballistic missile defense systems for forward-deployed and expeditionary elements of the U.S. Armed Forces. Additionally, MDA will develop options and if directed, acquire systems for ballistic missile defense of the United States. General O?Reilly is also the Director of the Joint National Integration Center and Program Director, Ground-based Midcourse Defense. In this capacity, he oversees MDA?s worldwide efforts to develop, field, integrate and sustain a capability to defend the territory of the United States against intermediate and long-range ballistic missile threats in the midcourse phase of flight.
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Forum on National Security Space - Space Issues in 2007
January 22, 2007
The increasing dependence on space by the United States, its allies, and potential adversaries has stimulated much debate about the security threats and defense of our space assets. This forum, part of the Marshall Institute?s ongoing National Security Space project,examined the issues influencing debates over national security space policy and programs likely to arise in 2007.
The discussion was organized into three panels:
A. Is Space Important to U.S. National Interests?
- John Sheldon, U.S. A. F. School of Advanced Air & Space Studies
- Peter Hays, SAIC
B. Does the U.S. have a National Security Policy for Space?
- Baker Spring, Heritage Foundation
C. What are the Key Actions that Would Advance U.S. Interests?
- Steve Hill, Global Analytics, Inc.
- Theresa Hitchens, Center for Defense Information
- Robert Butterworth, Aries Analytics
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The U.S. National Space Policy
Under Secretary of State forArms Control and International Security
Wednesday, December 13, 2006
In the first address by a senior U.S. official on the recently released National Space Policy, Dr. Robert Josephdiscussed the importance of space for U.S. national security as well as our economic prosperity and why the National Space Policy should enjoy international support.
Robert Joseph serves as the Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. In this capacity, he is the principal State officer for non- and counterproliferation matters, as well as for arms control, arms transfers, regional security and defense relations, and security assistance. Previously, he served as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Proliferation Strategy, Counterproliferation and Homeland Defense, National Security Council. In this position he was responsible, under the supervision of the National Security Advisor, for developing and coordinating U.S. policies and strategies for preventing and defending against threats to the United States from weapons of mass destruction.
* * *
China?s Military Ambitions in Space
Larry Wortzel and Dean Cheng
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
China is quickly becoming a major actor in outer space. Its highly publicized exploration program and its commercial prowess are indicators of growing means and interest in space activities. This discussion explored China?s military goals and intentions in space as well as its technological capabilities. Italso considered the means and measures needed to counter these prospective Chinese threats and protect the United States? strategic advantages and security in space.
The panelists were
Dr. Larry Wortzel, Colonel, US Army, (Ret.), a leading authority on China, Asia, intelligence issues, foreign policy, national security, space policy, and military strategy; and
Mr. Dean Cheng, who tracks Chinese military and technology issues at the CNA Corporation?s Project Asia.
For a discussion of this event, see China Sees Its Military Future in the Stars by Gopal Ratnam.
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The Future of the Electric Utility: Technological Transformation in the Electricity Generation Sector
Tuesday, October 17, 2006
What is the future for the electric utility? What new technologies are foreseen that will change how utilities operate and perform? How will their adoption impact U.S. energy consumption and environmental concerns?
Panelists representing the perspectives of various elements of the electric utility industry and the federal governmentdiscussed the possibilities for the near- and long-term technological future and highlight efforts in the private and public sector to develop transformative technologies and put them into the marketplace.
The panelists were:
- Bob Rainey, Council on Environmental Quality
- Bryan Hannegan, Electric Power Research Institute
- Robert Beck, National Coal Council
- Eric Loewen, George C. Marshall Institute
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Hurricanes and Climate Change: Assessing the Linkages Following the 2006 Season
Dr. William Gray
Colorado State University
Wednesday, October 11, 2006
For much of the last year, concerns that human activities were causing more frequent and more intense hurricanes received considerable attention. Dr. William Gray, one of the world?s most famous hurricane experts, reviewed these claims and discussed how the 2006 hurricane season affects these conclusions.
More than two decades ago, as professor of atmospheric science and head of the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University, Dr. William Gray pioneered the science of hurricane forecasting. Each December, six months before the start of hurricane season, Gray and his team issue a long-range prediction of the number of major tropical storms and hurricanes that will arise in the Atlantic Ocean basin. He specializes in the global aspects of tropical cyclones; observational and theoretical aspects of tropical meteorological research and the investigation of meso-scale tropical weather phenomena.
Professor Gray's slides can be found by following this link.
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The Cruise Missile Challenge: Designing a Defense Against Asymmetric Threats
Tuesday, September 26, 2006
Defending the United States homeland, as well as our troops deployed abroad, from cruise missile attacks presents a difficult but increasingly likely challenge. This discussion considered the scope of the cruise missile threat, the probability of their use against the U.S., and the options available to defend U.S. military forces as well as the homeland.
Introduction by Congressman Trent Franks (R-AZ)
- Capt. Robert Barwis, U.S. Navy.
- Mr. Christopher Bolkcom, Analyst in National Defense, Congressional Research Service.
- Mr. John Heidenrich, Senior Policy Analyst, Science Applications International Organization.
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The Future of the Automobile: Technological Transformation in the Transportation Sector
Tuesday, September 19, 2006
What is the future for automotive transportation? What new technologies are foreseen that will change how automobiles operate and perform? How will their adoption impact U.S. energy consumption and environmental concerns?
Panelists representing the perspectives of the automobile industry and the federal governmentdiscussed the possibilities for the near- and long-term technological future of the automobile and highlight efforts in the private and public sector to develop transformative technologies and put them into the marketplace.
The panelists were:
- Fred Webber, President and CEO, Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers
- Edward J. Wall, Program Manager, FreedomCAR and Vehicle Technologies, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Department of Energy (For Mr. Wall's slides, follow this link.)
- Keith Cole, Director, Legislative and Regulatory Affairs, General Motors Company. (For Mr. Cole's slides, follow this link.)
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From Oil Sands and Cornfields to Server Farms: Principles to Consider When Formulating Energy Policy
Monday, July 17, 2006
"The energy future is bleak and is likely to grow bleaker in the decade ahead. We must rapidly adjust our economies to a condition of chronic stringency in traditional energy supplies."
So said our nation?s first Secretary of Energy, James Schlesinger, in August 1979 at the National Press Club. Few issues have as long and storied a history in the modern affairs of public policy as does "energy." Few subjects have the capacity to engender policies so breathtakingly disconnected from reality. Compared to two-and-a-half decades ago, the U.S. economy looks quite different and is over twice the size. But some things haven?t changed; specifically the immutable laws of physics, and basic principals of economics. The nation wrestles once more with energy policies, from replanting corn fields for alcohol, to reviving nuclear power, to genuflecting to the chimera of energy independence. A brief exploration of core natural and economic realities might usefully inform the policy process ? realities that may indeed be completely ignored, but that will nonetheless dictate what the energy future holds.
Mark Mills, a physicist, is Chairman & CTO of ICx Technologies, a co-founding partner in the venture fund Digital Power Capital, and founding member of the research firm Digital Power Group. He is co-author of The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We?ll Never Run Out of Energy (paperback release April 2006).